London, 5 July 1999.
For immediate release.

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Man Made Global Warming "Consensus Of Opinion" Falling Apart
Two reports show natural climate change looking more likely
Two entirely separate pieces of scientific research, published in June, suggest that "Global Warming" is much more likely to be a natural phenomenon than the man made impending disaster suggested by the government and environmental groups.

ABD Environment Spokesman Julian Rowden comments:
"It is widely known that at each of these timescales there are other natural causes for climate change which can account for the remaining half of the observed temperature variation. Over recent decades, the phenomenon of urban warming is held to be responsible for up to half of the observed temperature rise - this comes about due to the fact that temperature measurements on which claims of global warming are based are largely taken in towns and cities, which retain heat better as urbanisation spreads. Taken with Prof. Lockwood's findings this squeezes out man-made influences on short timescales. Over longer periods of time there are influences from tectonic activity, plus changes in the Earth's axial tilt and orbital eccentricity (known as the Milankovitch cycles) which are more than capable of generating the observed changes"
ABD Committee member and environment analyst Bernard Abrams continues:
"Looking to the past, there have been huge fluctuations in both surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, yet it remains true that the best correlation is between surface temperature and solar activity. The recent ice core research points out that greenhouse gas concentrations are at their highest now, yet their research timescale, even at 400,000 years, is very short by geological and astronomical standards. Go back more than twice as far, to between 1 and 60 million years ago, and you will find carbon dioxide levels which are many tens of times higher than today's levels, all without a single car or factory in sight."

Looking to the future, warnings of doom and gloom regarding climate change linked to carbon dioxide output are seen to be false. Carbon dioxide can absorb radiant heat energy at one particular wavelength (15 microns), and this is already very close to saturation. At this point adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere couldn't possibly result in any further temperature rise. This saturation, pointed out in the journal 'Science' by Dr Steven Schneider back in the 1970s, has been conveniently ignored by those working on climate change.

Together with the work of Dr Piers Corbyn of South Bank University, who reports that carbon dioxide is a far less important greenhouse gas than water vapour, it goes a long way towards explaining the failure of computer models which are responsible for widely publicised dire predictions and, on the basis of these predictions, for the unjustified taxes levied against the motorist. When started with accurate data from today's climate record and then run backwards in time, these models fail miserably to reproduce the historic record of climate change and therefore cannot be relied on to say anything useful about the future.

Even recent reports claiming visible effects of global warming - particularly the hullabaloo surrounding the break-up of a small ice shelf in Antarctica - are seen by those directly involved in research at such sites to be unrelated to global climate change. British Antarctic Survey (BAS) scientists point out that these changes are not due to global warming. Dr Keith Nicholls, also of the BAS, reports that research at the Filchner-Ronne ridge leads to the conclusion that rising temperatures [would] lead to thickening of the ice sheet due to changes in sub-surface salt concentrations, and ends by saying "Now it's clear they [ice shelves]are unaffected".

The ABD now seeks answers from Government to some fundamental questions:
  1. Given the disintegration of traditional man-made global warming theories, which have been used to justify swingeing rises in indirect tax on petrol and diesel fuels, when will a more objective policy line be followed which will give a fair deal to the country's 30 million driving licence holders?

  2. Even within the Government's discredited carbon dioxide-centred policies, why is it that when buildings generate almost twice the carbon dioxide emissions of transport, heating fuel is taxed at 5% while transport fuel (petrol) is taxed at over 500%?

  3. After the risible sop of a cut in vehicle excise duty for 'small' cars, when is the government going to admit to their plans for massive rises in this tax for other vehicles, based on carbon dioxide emission levels, represents a policy which is now discredited along with man-made global warming theories?
ABD Chairman Brian Gregory concludes:
"It is now clear that global warming and natural climate change are converging concepts."
Notes for Editors