London, 21 Feb 2001.
For immediate release.

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Association Of British Drivers Forecast:
Storm Brewing Over Global Warming
As global warming activists continue to pour out information pollution, the ABD casts serious doubt on any blame for climate change attached to mankind's activities.
ABD Environment Spokesman, Bernard Abrams, comments:
"There is overwhelming evidence that variable solar activity is responsible for climate change. The role of the Sun has been under-estimated all along, a fact recently confirmed by research from the European Space Agency. Given that mankind is not responsible for 'global warming', attempts to reverse climate change through carbon taxes are King Canute strategies - they are bound to fail. Gordon Brown might as well tax the Sun for shining."

"We are now, in any case, in a significant period of global cooling, something which the carbon dioxide alarmists cannot explain."

The ABD supports the view, backed by over 17000 scientists worldwide and summarised in the Oregon Petition, that there is no credible evidence that mankind is influencing climate change and causing global meltdown. Abrams continues: "We are told repeatedly that there is a consensus over climate change, and that mankind - usually motorists - are to blame for global warming. In fact, the true consensus is just the opposite, as can be seen from the Oregon Petition. Climate change is real and as old as planet Earth itself, but the politician's explanation in terms of emissions is, in our opinion, merely an attempt to excuse highway robbery by indirect taxation."

The average surface temperature of planet Earth correlates with solar activity, as does extreme weather in the UK such as heavy winter rainfall.

Downloadable images showing these relationships can be found at:
www.abd.org.uk/images/solar_activity.gif (solar activity graph for the last 400 years)
www.abd.org.uk/images/winter_rainfall.gif (heavy winter rainfall and solar cycle graph)
www.abd.org.uk/images/mean_surface_temperature.gif (graph of mean surface temperature over 1000 years)

 

Mean Surface Temperature 900AD-2000AD

900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Note the period of medieval global warming (1100 - 1300) and the mini ice age (1650 - 1700). Current warming (1900 - 2000) is modest by geological standards and the rate is slow. The Earth has warmed by 10 degrees Celsius (and cooled again), in a timescale of 10 years or so, several times in the last 60000 years, all without mankind's assistance. Since 1900, Earth has warmed by 0.5 degree celsius, but is now (2000/2001) cooling again This is likely to be short-lived as the intensity of solar maxima is increasing again. Carbon taxes cannot prevent this, nor moderate the effects since carbon dioxide levels are an effect, not a cause, of the continuous naturally occurring climate change on our planet.
 
Source:EMA

 

There are no such correlations between climate change and carbon dioxide emissions.

ABD Chairman, Brian Gregory, concludes:

"Patterns of solar activity stretching back over five centuries point to continued climate change independent of mankind. This must not be allowed to excuse those with hidden motives from indulging in a frenzy of anti-car policies. Evidence acquitting the car, and mankind generally, is overwhelming."

"We urge politicians to accept both sides of the precautionary principle: climate change due to the Sun requires a whole new approach which goes beyond short-term opportunism and futile carbon taxation. What's more, in cost-benefit terms, the very modest and naturally occurring warming of the last century has had positive effects which alarmists curiously fail to mention. The ABD calls on politicians to tell the truth about global warming and, in the run-up to a General Election, to listen to the motor voter, of which there are more than 25 million."

Notes for Editors


The Oregon Petition, which has nearly 18000 signatories, states:
"There is no convincing evidence that human release of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases is causing, or will cause in the future, catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere or disruption of the Earth's climate"
The real causes of climate change, over all timescales, are:
  1. changes in the output of the Sun (short-term: 11 year and 88 year cycles)
  2. changes in the axial tilt of the Earth
  3. changes in the orbital eccentricity of the Earth
  4. the impact of the interplanetary (and interstellar) medium
  5. tectonic effects.
NASA satellite data shows that 15% of the global warming claimed for the last 100 years has been lost in less than 2 years, during the current period of global cooling, which has led to one of the coldest winters in the USA on record.

Scientists have dismissed claims that taxing fuel will stop global warming, because evidence shows it is caused by the Sun. The temperature rise, previously blamed on the burning of fossil fuels, results from an increase in solar radiation. Latest research by the European Space Agency (ESA), uses satellite and other astronomical data to show that earlier models severely underestimated the Sun's impact. The potential political impact is huge. These studies say the main reason is a solar energy surge and a big increase in ultraviolet (UV) light. This has coincided with a doubling in strength of the sun's magnetic field. Much of the data on the Sun's role in global warming was gathered by the ESA's sun-watching Soho satellite. Paal Brekke, Soho's deputy project scientist, said the results could change thinking on climate: "Taxing carbon-based fuels will not be much help in keeping the Earth cool."

Atmospheric expansion due to solar activity is also responsible for cleaning up the near-Earth environment, by dragging low-orbit space junk down where it burns up in the atmosphere.

A moderately warmer climate, due to periods of increased solar activity, are a boon to agriculture, turbocharging growth of crops and renewable /sustainable forests.

Warmer winters save lives. Each winter - in the UK alone - over 30000 people die prematurely in cold-related deaths. This rises to 40000 in a severe winter. In a mild winter, the figure falls to 20000. Scaled up over northern europe, hundreds of thousands of lives will be saved for each mild winter.